Maybe next year, research firm says, as it downgrades forecast for both PC shipments and Windows Windows 10 won’t help the struggling PC business out of its multi-year slump in 2015, researcher Gartner said today. But it might next year. “The release of Windows 10 on 29 July will contribute to a slowing professional demand for mobile PCs and premium ultra-mobiles in 2015, as lifetimes extend by three months,” said Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal in a statement Tuesday. “However, as suppliers and buyers adjust to new prices, Windows 10 could boost replacements during 2016.” From Gartner’s perspective, the mere appearance of Windows 10 will result in delayed replacement PC purchases as enterprises and other large organizations put plans on hold as they begin evaluating the OS. “Testing on Windows 10, and not moving to Windows in the meantime,” Atwal replied in an email when asked to explain how the new operating system will impact PC shipments this year. Today’s forecast of global device shipments — the aggregate of personal computers, tablets and smartphones — put numbers to Microsoft’s fortunes. According to Atwal, who provided Computerworld with data on shipments broken out by OS, Windows will power about 323 million devices shipped in 2015, a 1.5% year-over-year decline. The 323 million represented 13.2% of the total of 2.5 billion devices, the bulk of them smartphones, the majority of those running Google’s Android. Gartner’s previous forecast, released in March, pegged Windows at 331 million devices, or 13.3% of the total, signaling a slight retreat in the latest estimate. With Microsoft still not banking significant numbers from Windows smartphones and tablets, PCs will remain responsible for most new devices. And as anyone who has followed the slings and arrows of the personal computer industry knows, the category has been in a slump since 2012. That’s not about to change. Gartner set the traditional PC and new-age “ultra-mobile” categories at a combined 300 million shipments for 2015, a 4.4% decline from the year before. (Examples of ultra-mobiles by Gartner’s definition include Apple’s MacBook Air notebook and Microsoft’s Surface Pro 2-in-1.) Today’s forecast was more pessimistic than those made three and six months ago, when the research firm said OEMs would ship 306 and 321 million PCs and ultra-mobiles, respectively. That’s been an ongoing trend for Gartner and its rival, IDC, whose optimistic prognostications have been repeatedly downgraded. In April 2013, for example, Gartner tagged 2014’s PC shipments at 341 million; the actual tally last year was just 314 million. In that same forecast two years ago, Gartner said that Windows would power 459 million devices in 2015, expecting great things from Windows 8 on tablets; now it’s betting on only 323 million, a 30% reduction. Macro factors are also to blame for weak PC shipments, Gartner argued, citing the strong dollar and thus higher prices in foreign markets. To insulate themselves from the currency fluctuations, U.S. OEMs have reduced their inventories by at least 5%, a practice Gartner sees continuing through at least year’s end. Related content news analysis Apple earnings: About that iPhone 'slump' in China Based on information from Thursday's earnings report, it seems that data pointing to an iPhone slump in China were over-baked. By Jonny Evans 03 May 2024 9 mins iMac iPhone Apple news Microsoft begins to phase out ‘classic’ Teams Microsoft is encouraging Teams customers to move to the new, faster version of the collaboration app; the older version will be switched off next year. By Matthew Finnegan 03 May 2024 3 mins Microsoft Teams Collaboration Software Productivity Software news analysis Apple confirms it will open up the iPad in Europe this fall The latest efforts to comply with Europe’s Digital Markets Act mean developers can offer to side load apps to both iPhones and iPads in the EU. Apple has also taken steps to improve what it offers to smaller and non-commercial developers in the By Jonny Evans 02 May 2024 6 mins iPad Apple Mobile Apps news Udacity offers laid-off US workers free access to its courses for 30 days Sign-ups will be available over the next 30 days By Lucas Mearian 02 May 2024 4 mins Technology Industry IT Jobs IT Skills Podcasts Videos Resources Events SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER From our editors straight to your inbox Get started by entering your email address below. Please enter a valid email address Subscribe