Technology research and advisory firm IDC has readjusted its semiconductor market outlook from September, predicting year-over-year growth of 20.2 per cent in 2024 due, in part, to growing demand from the US.
While global semiconductor revenue is still expected to see a decrease from US$598 billion in 2022 to US$526.5 billion in 2023, IDC believes that in addition to resilience in the US, increasing demand from AI server and end point device manufacturers will contribute to the market experiencing a period of growth in 2024, reaching $6.33 billion.
Elevated inventory levels of PCs and smartphones are expected to return to normal in the second half of 2024, as continued electrification of manufacturing equipment drives semiconductor content over the next decade. The report said that the introduction of PCs and smartphones that use AI next year, in addition to improvements in the average selling prices of memory and DRAM bit volume, will also drive a growing need for semiconductors between 2024 and 2026.
IDC said that although wafer capacity pricing will remain flat next year, capital expenditure is expected to improve by the second half of 2024, as revenue shipments match end demand and regional US CHIPS ACT incentives fuel investment across the supply chain.
In August, around the the one year anniversary of the US CHIPS Act being signed by President Biden, it was announced that more than 460 companies have expressed interested in winning government semiconductor subsidy funding.
"The semiconductor market reached a bottom and has begun to grow on a quarter-over-quarter basis. ASPs are improving in DRAM, which is a good early indicator and IDC expects suppliers will continue to control capacity additions and utilisation rates to drive a sustainable recovery,” said Mario Morales, group vice president, semiconductors and enabling technologies at IDC.
“Accelerating demand for AI servers and AI-enabled end point devices will drive more semiconductor content in 2024-2026 fuelling a new upgrade cycle across enterprises. We expect that by the end of our forecast period, AI silicon will account for almost $200 billion in semiconductor revenues,” he said.