"It's hard to tell exactly what will play out," said Jean Bozman, an analyst at IDC. Spending commitments are already in place at most firms. "People have already made their plans without knowing what we know now," she said.
Charles King, principal analyst at Pund-IT, sees a tech market already in the early stages of softening sales. That could make it difficult for vendors to push new products like Microsoft Windows Server 2008, as companies look for ways to cut back on spending and shift money around.
"Unless a business can prove that it's absolutely critical to have those products to improve earnings or save a significant amount of money, I would expect companies to put off purchases as far as they possibly can," said King.
Jeff Miller, managing director of EdgeLink, a recruiting firm, said business is still solid -- for now. His firm focuses on placing senior software engineers with eight to 10 years' experience -- particularly those with .Net and Linux skills.
Though the market remains good for people with experience, Miller said a lot of engineers are hunkering down, unwilling to change jobs in this increasingly uncertain climate unless they're convinced of a prospective employer's financial strength.
Economic woes could yield legislative action aimed at firming up the job market. Analysts and consultants said it's possible that Congress could approve tax incentives designed to encourage US companies to keep jobs in the US. That could be especially true of hard-hit financial services that may be under pressure to move jobs offshore to save money. IT career choices may be affected as well.
Kim Berry, president of the Programmers Guild, said IT workers employed in various industries are as vulnerable as other workers to layoffs. "This is going to put a damper on the general job market," he said, adding that he hopes that with the downturn, Congress will eschew any efforts to increase the H-1B visa cap.
