Jobs' health has been a matter of concern for some Wall Street analysts and a topic of discussion among Apple users and investors for months. The speculation began last June, when Jobs' gaunt appearance during the company's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) fueled talk that he might again be seriously ill. In 2004, Jobs announced that he had had surgery to remove a cancerous tumor in his pancreas.
After Jobs revealed last week that he was suffering from what he called a "hormonal imbalance," one noted endocrinologist said that Jobs may have symptoms that resemble Type 1 diabetes, and that he could be treated with insulin.
Apple has a history of keeping a lid on information about Jobs' health. The company waited until after his 2004 pancreatic surgery before notifying investors. Last summer, after rumors began circulating about his WWDC appearance, Apple initially said that Jobs was suffering from a "common bug," an explanation some analysts found hard to believe. Last week, when Jobs himself disclosed a continued health problem, he swore it would be his last missive on the subject. "So now I've said more than I wanted to say, and all that I am going to say, about this," he said then.
An Apple without Jobs, said Gottheil, would still be a remarkable company, but with less of the competitive edge that Jobs helped create. "If he isn't able to return, I think you'd see a high-functioning company, but one without the lightning strike of genius. They'd have a human batting average."
"Look, Jobs is not throwing in the towel here," countered Baker. "He clearly anticipates that he will be coming back."
For Gottheil's money, Apple faces a tough future even if Jobs was at the helm. "The big thing coming up is how hard the recession is going to hit them, not Jobs' absence," said Gottheil. "If he were not there [in the future] and the recession hits harder than they planned for, then it might cause them to wobble."
If Jobs permanently steps away, Gottheil continued, don't look for Apple to go outside the company for a new chief, as Yahoo did just this week by hiring Carol Bartz , the former CEO of Autodesk Inc.
"In Apple's case, absolutely they'd promote from within," said Gottheil. "There are just not that many companies that have the orientation that Apple has."
Baker said to expect Apple to put out some additional information about Jobs' health, perhaps indirectly, between now and June, to provide investors a status update. "Not more than once, though," he said.
"I feel bad for the guy," Baker added. "Not only does he have to deal with a health issue, but he has to do it in the public eye."
